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When was the last time a dominant running back led his team to a Super Bowl title? You might have to go all the way back to Terrell Davis and the 1998 Denver Broncos for an example, and that might not be a fair one. Davis was playing alongside of a Hall of Fame quarterback in John Elway, after all. A more modern case such as Marshawn Lynch is misleading, because his 2013 Seahawks were successful thanks mostly to their defense, particularly their pass defense.The Vikings might want to keep that in mind when weighing the $18 million salary Adrian Peterson is due next season. Peterson, who is likely to miss the rest of 2016 with a knee injury and will turn 32 next season, has probably seen his best days as a runner. Its still possible for him to have some productive seasons ahead, but thats not the question for the Vikings. The question is whether he is worth $18 million. All of Petersons pay next season is in base salary and roster bonus, so Minnesota can cut him before 2017 without incurring any cap penalty.It has long been said that the NFL is a passing league, and for good reason. Its not just that passing has become more frequent and successful; it is more decisive in terms of scoring and winning. We know this thanks to Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA). EPA is our best measure of overall scoring productivity, measuring an offenses ability to move the ball, limit turnovers, and even suppress opponents opportunities to score. WPA does the same thing, but also considers game situation factors like score, time, and timeouts remaining.In 2015, the spread among the 32 teams was 2.3 EPA when passing, measured in terms of standard deviation. When running, the spread among the 32 teams was 0.7 EPA, less than a third of the impact of passing. In terms of WPA, the difference was only slightly less stark. The standard deviation among teams for passing was 1.1 WPA, and for running it was 0.4 WPA. In other words, a team should greatly prefer being a top passing team than a top running team by a factor of 3 to 1. Another way to look at this disparity is that being the most dominant running offense in the league would equate to being a modestly above-average passing offense.So in a world where $18 million is more in line with the salary of a second-tier quarterback, is it plausible that any running back would be worth that amount? If any running back would be worth it, it would be Peterson (or Peterson in his prime, at least). His suspension for nearly all of the 2014 season offers a conveniently large natural experiment for testing how much of an impact he made on the Vikings fortunes in recent years.Lets look at the past four full regular seasons (2012-15), and compare how the Vikings offense performed with Peterson on the field compared with off the field. On rushing plays, the Vikings performed measurably better with Peterson. Without him on the field, they averaged minus-0.01 EPA/play. But with him on the field, they averaged 0.02 EPA. Roughly speaking, that difference equates to about half a point per game. Another way to look at it is that the difference of 0.03 EPA/play would make an otherwise average offense into the 13th-best offense. Thats good, just not $18 million good.But Peterson contributed more than just rushing to the Vikings offense. Smart people in football will tell you his mere presence has drawn extra defenders near the line of scrimmage and has helped open up his teams passing. Its a plausible assertion, but how true is it?Comparing Weeks 2 through 17 in 2014 and 2015 can give us an idea of Petersons influence on opposing defenses. Peterson played in Week 1 in 14 before missing the rest of the season, and without him, the Vikings saw an average of 6.7 defenders in the box. But with Peterson in 15, they saw an average of 7.1. And in those same games, the box was considered loaded, meaning there were more potential tacklers than potential blockers, only 17 times without Peterson in 14, but 117 times with Peterson in 15. So it looks like there was an effect, but what was the bottom line in terms of passing productivity?Lets look at the Vikings passing EPA rates with and without Peterson. On all pass plays, with Peterson on the field over the past four regular seasons, Minnesota averaged 0.12 EPA/play. Without him on the field? They averaged, yes, 0.12 EPA/play. A lot of other factors can affect those numbers, such as quarterback Teddy Bridgewaters development in the past two seasons, so lets break it out by year. The difference with and without Peterson on passing plays in the last four full seasons was minus-0.07, minus-0.04, minus-0.01, and 0.08 EPA/play, respectively. So although Peterson draws in the defense, it seems that the effect of an elite running back such as Peterson on the passing game is probably overstated at best, and non-existent at worst.So how can some free agent running backs be so overpaid? A few decades ago, the NFL was truly a running league and great RBs could make a much bigger impact on the game. Theres also the illusion from the fact that running backs happen to be the guys with the ball in their hands and the stats on the back of their trading cards. We all remember the days on the sandlot or on the varsity team where the running back is always the best athlete on the field. But running back has a high replacement level in the NFL in 2016, meaning there are a number of competent players available who arent much of a liability at the position, compared to relatively scarce positions like cornerback or offensive line. Lastly, theres the age-old causation/correlation fallacy in which running backs on winning teams get to pad their yardage totals by sealing wins in the fourth quarter, making them appear to be causing their teams success.Even Peterson in his prime would not be worth close to $18 million. Although such an athlete can be fascinating to watch and can win fantasy games for fans, the modern running game just barely moves the needle when it comes to competing for championships, and Minnesota is Exhibit A.After this season, the Vikings have 19 pending free agents currently earning a total of $34 million in per-year salaries over their contracts, including several starters. That $18 million in savings could go a long way toward shoring up other, more critical positions. Even a severe reduction in salary to half or even a third of what Peterson is due would be a mistake.There is some question whether Minnesota can cut him. Peterson has to be able to pass a physical to be cut, and his contract says his 2017 pay must be exercised before the end of the current season. But assuming the Vikings have a choice, sadly, there should be no choice. Wholesale Nike Shoes From China . LOUIS -- St. Discount Nike Shoes From China . Louis Cardinals. Victorino is batting sixth and playing right field after missing two games because of back tightness. https://www.nikeshoeschina.us/ . Robredo, ranked No. 16, bounced back from an upset loss to Leonardo Mayer in the second round of the Royal Guard Open in Chile last week to down Carreno Busta in 1 hour, 25 minutes. On a day filled mostly with qualifying matches, fifth-seeded Marcel Granollers of Spain also entered the second with a 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 win over Aljaz Bedene of Slovenia, while Guido Pella of Argentina defeated Guillermo Garcia-Lopez of Spain 7-6 (6), 6-4 to advance. Cheap Nike Shoes From China .com) - The game was all punts and field goals before Kodi Whitfields catch. Fake Nike Shoes From China . -- San Francisco 49ers linebacker Ahmad Brooks was fined $15,570 by the NFL on Wednesday for his hit on Saints quarterback Drew Brees last Sunday. CHICAGO -- Finally, everything came together for James Shields.The beleaguered right-hander pitched six effective innings for his first win in two months, Justin Morneau and Carlos Sanchez each hit a two-run homer and the Chicago White Sox beat the Tampa Bay Rays 7-1 on Monday night.Shields (6-18) allowed one run and seven hits, using six strikeouts to help wriggle out of several jams and lift Chicago win its third straight.The right-hander hadnt won since July 26, when he pitched scoreless ball into the eighth against the crosstown Cubs. Shields was 0-6 in his previous 10 starts and is 4-11 since a trade to Chicago from San Diego.In this one, Shields had solid command and reached back to make some big pitches in tight spots. He was backed by four double plays and ample offense as the White Sox pulled away.I got ahead of hitters and I was throwing some real good pitches actually that they were just spitting on, working the count, said Shields, who threw 108 pitches. They got my pitch count up early, but I ended up grinding it out.Ending the drought felt good, too.I had a few chances my last few starts to get some wins, but sometimes those things happen, Shields said. Im just trying to finish the season strong right now.Morneau and Omar Narvaez each had two hits. Jose Abreu had two hits and an RBI.Tampa Bays Drew Smyly (7-12) allowed three runs and seven hits over five innings in losing for the first time since July 18 at Colorado.I felt that I pitched better than the box score, Smyly said.The Rays couldnt cash in against Shields, and then four Chicago relievers combined for three scoreless innings as Tampa Bay left 10 on base.Just a frustrating game on all fronts, Rays manager Kevin Cash said. We have some opportunities that we didnt make the most of, for sure.(Shields) mixed (pitches) reallyy well.dddddddddddd. Its just kind of unfortunate that he put it together against us tonight.Curt Casali drove in the lone run off Shields with a single in the fourth. Jaff Decker had three hits for Tampa Bay, which has dropped four straight and seven of eight.The White Sox bullpen pitched scoreless ball thanks in part to Abreu throwing out Mikie Mahtook at the plate in the eighth.Shields began his career with Tampa Bay in 2006 and pitched seven seasons with the Rays. Hes 4-11 with the White Sox, who acquired him from San Diego on June 4.Morneau homered in the seventh and Sanchez connected in the eighth.OH, KsThe Rays struck out only six times Monday after becoming just the fifth big league team to strike out 23 or more times in a game in a 3-2, 10-inning loss to Boston on Sunday.Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash, a backup catcher over eight seasons with five teams, was asked if he thought of picking up a bat himself. He quipped, I would have fit right in.TRAINERS ROOMRays: CF Kevin Kiermaier sat out after being hit by a pitch on the left wrist in the second inning of Sundays game and leaving. X-rays were negative, and Cash said he was just giving Kiermaier a day.White Sox: OF Adam Eaton missed his third game after crashing into a padded outfield wall in Cleveland on Friday night. Eaton said the biggest thing was the hip. Theres no timetable for his return. ... IF Tyler Saladino (back discomfort) sat out his fourth straight game.UP NEXTTampa Bay RHP Alex Cobb (1-1, 6.16) faces White Sox ace lefty Chris Sale (16-9, 3.19) on Tuesday night. Sale will try to match his career high of 17 wins set in 2012, but hes just 2-7 since peaking at 14-2 after beating Houston on July 2. ' ' '